Here's the GasRadar daily briefing for Friday, March 13, 2026:

European Gas Market Briefing

Friday, March 13, 2026

Market Overview

TTF prices edged up slightly (+0.56%) to EUR 50.27/MWh, continuing the rebound from Monday’s low of EUR 47.0/MWh. The market remains volatile, with prices swinging between EUR 46.4–62.9/MWh intraday—reflecting geopolitical uncertainty and thin liquidity. Despite recent corrections, prices remain ~21% above March lows, signaling lingering bullish sentiment.

Storage Update

EU storage stagnant at 29.4%, flat vs. yesterday and 14.1pp below the 5-year average.
Netherlands (8.5%) and Germany (21.8%) remain critically undersupplied, while Spain (55.7%) and Portugal (76.7%) hold robust reserves.
Croatia (+9.1% daily injection) saw an outlier surge, likely due to regional balancing flows.
Bearish signal: No aggregate EU injections this late in the season raises winter 2026 supply risks.

Weather & Demand

Mild conditions persist: EU-weighted HDDs at 6.9, below seasonal norms.
No immediate cold spikes—Helsinki (5.3°C), Stockholm (6.4°C), and Madrid (6.4°C) reflect subdued heating demand.
Demand outlook: Weak short-term consumption, but structural storage deficits keep traders cautious.

Supply & Geopolitics

LNG diversion to Asia: Reports confirm 10% of expected US LNG cargoes redirected, tightening European supply (BFM).
Middle East tensions: Iran war risks linger, but Trump’s de-escalation hints cap panic (Reuters).
Qatar LNG disruptions: Helium supply chain issues spill over into LNG logistics (thedeepdive.ca).
Oil-gas linkage: Brent volatility spills into TTF, with sanctions on Russian crude adding noise (OilPrice).

Bottom Line

Bullish bias—Geopolitical risks and LNG diversions outweigh mild weather, with critically low storage keeping upward pressure on TTF. Key risk: Iran conflict de-escalation triggering a sharp correction.