European Gas Market Briefing

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Market Overview

TTF prices extended losses, closing at EUR 54.04/MWh (-4.66%), marking a 13% drop from last week’s peak (EUR 61.85). The sell-off reflects easing geopolitical tensions (Qatar LNG force majeure priced in) and mild weather capping demand. Volatility remains elevated, with the 7-day range at EUR 50.75–61.85.

Storage Update

EU storage flat at 29.4% (vs. 5Y avg of 42.5%), signaling persistent structural tightness. Critical deficits in Northwest Europe (Netherlands 7.4%, Germany 22%) contrast with Southern buffers (Spain 55.7%, Portugal 78.6%). Zero net injections for the third straight week heightens summer refill risks.

Weather & Demand

Mild conditions prevail: EU-weighted HDDs at 6.7, below seasonal norms. Coldest hubs (Helsinki 2.3°C, Berlin 6.5°C) show limited heating demand. Forecasts indicate further warming, pressuring short-term gas-for-power needs.

Supply & Geopolitics

• Qatar LNG disruptions: Missile attacks cut export capacity by 17%, with force majeure declared for China, Italy, Belgium, and South Korea contracts (bullish).
• Alternative LNG flows: Africa’s LNG projects gain urgency as Europe scrambles for replacements (neutral).
• Oil-gas linkage: Brent crude tumbled below $100 on ceasefire hopes, dragging gas sentiment (bearish).

Bottom Line

Neutral-to-bearish near-term with Qatar risks offset by demand weakness; watch for storage injection signals and Middle East escalation risks.