European Gas Market Briefing - March 31, 2026

Market Overview

TTF prices edged higher today (+1.18% to €54.81/MWh), continuing the rebound from last week's €52.82 low but remaining well below the March 19 peak of €59.26. The market remains range-bound (€52-€56) as geopolitical risks offset bearish fundamentals.

Storage Update

EU storage remains stagnant at 29.4% (unchanged WoW), severely lagging the 5-year average (-14.3pp). Critical deficits persist in Northwest Europe (Netherlands at 5.2%, Germany 22.2%), while Southern Europe (Spain 56.7%, Portugal 87.2%) provides limited relief. Flat injections signal summer replenishment risks.

Weather & Demand

Mild conditions prevail (EU-weighted HDDs at 6.8), with temperatures in key demand hubs like Amsterdam (8.3°C) and Brussels (8.5°C) suppressing heating demand. No significant cold spells forecast, maintaining bearish pressure.

Supply & Geopolitics

• Escalating Middle East tensions: Iranian strikes on LNG tankers (Reuters) and Trump’s threats to target Iran’s energy infrastructure (Reuters) revived supply fears.
• Pakistan pipeline attack: Balochistan blast disrupts regional gas flows (Financial Express), though impact on EU LNG flows is indirect.
• LNG demand uptick: PetroVietnam seeks spot cargo (3.2 MMBtu) for April-May delivery (TradingView), tightening Asian LNG supply competition.

Bottom Line

Neutral-bullish bias: Geopolitical risks (Iran, LNG disruptions) counter weak fundamentals (low demand, stagnant storage), with upside risk if Middle East tensions escalate further.