European Gas Market Briefing — April 13, 2026

Market Overview

TTF prices fell sharply to EUR 43.64/MWh (-5.49%), extending last week’s bearish momentum. The contract has now shed 18% since April 7’s peak (EUR 53.25), pressured by easing geopolitical tensions and mild weather. However, intraday volatility remains elevated—today’s range (EUR 43.53–46.53) reflects lingering uncertainty over Hormuz risks.

Storage Update

EU storage remains stagnant at 29.4%, still 14.5pp below the 5-year average—structurally bullish. Critical deficits persist in Northwest Europe:
- Netherlands (6.1%), Germany (23.3%), and France (25.5%) remain vulnerable.
- Southern buffers (Spain 60.2%, Portugal 91.7%) provide limited relief due to pipeline constraints.
Implication: Without injections, summer replenishment risks grow—particularly if LNG flows stay disrupted.

Weather & Demand

Mild conditions prevail, with EU-weighted HDDs at 2.3 (below seasonal norms). Key cities:
- Helsinki (4.8°C), Stockholm (6.2°C)—cool but not cold enough to spike demand.
- Amsterdam (10.0°C), Warsaw (9.5°C)—further reducing heating needs.
Outlook: Forecasts suggest continued bearish pressure from weak heating demand.

Supply & Geopolitics

Bullish risks dominate headlines:
- Hormuz blockade threat: Trump’s warning pushed oil above $100, spilling into gas (LNG supply fears).
- Gazprom exports up 21% YoY: Russian flows rise amid LNG disruptions—watch for political backlash.
- Hungary’s leadership change: Market monitors potential shifts in Central European gas policy.

Bearish offsets:
- Mild weather dampens demand.
- Profit-taking after last week’s spike.

Bottom Line

Neutral-to-bearish near-term (weather, storage stagnation), but bullish risks loom (Hormuz, Gazprom flows). Key watch: U.S.-Iran tensions and LNG disruptions.