Here’s your GasRadar daily briefing for Wednesday, April 15, 2026:
Market Overview
TTF prices fell sharply to EUR 43.37/MWh (-6.57%), testing the lower end of the recent EUR 43.37–53.25/MWh range. The drop follows a volatile week driven by geopolitical noise, but today’s move suggests traders are pricing in easing supply risks despite ongoing Hormuz tensions. Weak demand (mild weather) and stagnant storage injections add bearish pressure.
Storage Update
EU storage remains stagnant at 29.4%, 14.8pp below the 5-year average, signaling structural tightness. Key takeaways:
- Netherlands (6.3%) and Germany (23.3%) remain critically undersupplied.
- Southern Europe (Spain 62.1%, Portugal 91.6%) continues to offset deficits, but limited interconnectivity restricts redistribution.
- Belgium (-0.5%) and Bulgaria (-0.4%) show notable withdrawals, while most other countries see flat or minimal builds.
Implication: Without meaningful injections, summer replenishment risks grow—especially if LNG flows remain constrained.
Weather & Demand
Mild spring weather persists, with EU-weighted HDDs at 7.4. Key cities:
- Stockholm (6.2°C), Berlin (6.6°C), Munich (7.8°C)—all below seasonal norms but not extreme.
- Heating demand remains subdued, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
Supply & Geopolitics
- Hormuz Blockade Holds: U.S. maintains Strait of Hormuz blockade (bullish LNG risk), but prices shrug it off—suggesting market sees resolution potential.
- U.S. Gas Pipeline Expansion: Trump administration fast-tracks Pennsylvania-NYC pipeline (bearish for TTF if U.S. LNG exports rise).
- Oil-Gas Decoupling: Brent crude falls amid U.S.-Iran talks, but TTF’s sharper drop indicates gas-specific bearishness.
Bottom Line
Bearish near-term with prices testing support at EUR 43/MWh, but Hormuz risks loom; watch for storage injection signals or geopolitical escalation.