European Gas Market Briefing — April 24, 2026

Market Overview

TTF surged 2.17% to EUR 44.5/MWh, extending its rally to a 4th consecutive session (+14.8% since April 17). Prices tested EUR 44.9 intraday — the highest since April 13 — as geopolitical tensions and persistently low EU storage outweighed mild weather. The EUR 38.77–44.5 range this week reflects renewed bullish momentum after last week’s 8.6% drop.

Storage Update

EU storage flat at 29.4%, remaining 16.4pp below the 5-year average (bullish structural signal). Critical deficits persist:
- Netherlands (8.3%) and Germany (23.8%) show minimal injection progress (+0.2% and 0.0% daily, respectively).
- Southern Europe (Spain 63.4%, Portugal 91.3%) remains overfilled but pipeline bottlenecks limit northward flows.
Implication: Summer refill risks intensify without accelerated injections or LNG inflows.

Weather & Demand

Mild spring conditions persist:
- Northern Europe temperatures hover near 8°C (Stockholm, Helsinki at 7.8°C), but HDDs remain negligible.
- No significant cold spells forecast, capping heating demand.
So what? Weather is neutral; price rally is driven by supply-side risks.

Supply & Geopolitics

Key developments:
1. Middle East tensions: Crude rallied on Hormuz disruptions (Baker Hughes cited oilfield activity impacts), indirectly supporting gas via LNG linkage risks.
2. QatarEnergy’s Golden Pass LNG exports began (first cargo from Texas) — bullish for global LNG flexibility but no immediate relief for Europe.
3. EU policy risks: "Europe Burns $28B With No Extra Energy" headline underscores inefficient crisis spending, raising concerns about winter preparedness.

Bottom Line

Bullish bias — TTF rally reflects storage anxiety and geopolitical risk premium, but upside capped by weak demand. Key watch: Middle East LNG disruptions.