GasRadar Daily Briefing — April 29, 2026

Market Overview

TTF prices retreated further to EUR 43.59/MWh (-2.36%), testing the lower end of the recent EUR 40.29–44.86/MWh range. The sell-off follows a brief rebound last week, with traders now focusing on:
- Geopolitical noise: Mixed signals from Middle East headlines (Trump’s actions, Iran refinery strikes) failing to sustain bullish momentum.
- Technical pressure: Prices rejected at EUR 45 resistance, reinforcing the downtrend from April highs.
- Decoupling from oil: Despite crude volatility (Hormuz disruptions), TTF remains range-bound, reflecting muted near-term LNG supply risks.

Storage Update

EU storage flat at 29.4%, still 18pp below 5-year average (bullish structural signal). Key takeaways:
- Critical deficits persist: Netherlands (9.4%), Germany (24.8%), and France (31.0%) lag significantly.
- Southern buffer intact: Spain (63.4%) and Portugal (91.3%) remain outliers, but pipeline bottlenecks limit relief to Northwest Europe.
- Injection stagnation: Zero aggregate trend highlights summer replenishment risks if LNG flows face disruptions.

Weather & Demand

Minimal heating demand (EU-weighted HDD: 0.6) continues to cap upside:
- Baltic cities coldest (Helsinki: 9.8°C), but temperatures remain above seasonal norms.
- Bearish demand outlook: Forecasts show no imminent cold snaps, supporting continued weak withdrawal pressure.

Supply & Geopolitics

Mixed signals dominate:
- Bullish: Croatia-Bosnia pipeline deal (reducing Russian dependence) and Middle East tensions (refinery strikes, Hormuz traffic spike).
- Bearish: No immediate LNG disruptions reported, and EU storage injections remain sluggish but stable.

Bottom Line

Neutral-bearish bias — TTF range-bound with downside pressure from weak demand and stagnant storage, but geopolitical risks loom. Key risk: Escalation in Middle East LNG disruptions.