European Gas Market Briefing — May 25, 2026

Market Overview

TTF prices retreated 1.47% to EUR 48.68/MWh, testing the lower end of the recent EUR 47.65–51.82/MWh range. The sell-off follows last week’s geopolitical-driven rally, with markets pricing in potential Middle East de-escalation (Iran deal optimism). Momentum remains bearish near-term, but structural storage deficits limit downside.

Storage Update

EU storage flat at 29.4% (vs. 55.1% 5-year average), highlighting persistent bullish risks. Key observations:
- Germany (+0.5% WoW) and France (+0.5%) show modest injection progress, but remain critically below historical levels.
- Netherlands (13.6%) and Sweden (9.9%) lag furthest behind, exacerbating regional imbalances.
- Portugal (90%) and Spain (68.7%) continue to provide a Southern buffer, but limited interconnectivity caps relief for Northern Europe.

Weather & Demand

Minimal heating demand with EU-weighted HDDs at 0.6. Temperatures across major cities (Dublin, Copenhagen, Helsinki) hover in the low-to-mid teens (°C), aligning with seasonal norms. Weather remains a non-factor for near-term pricing.

Supply & Geopolitics

Bearish catalysts dominate headlines:
- Middle East peace hopes (TTF, oil prices slide on Iran deal optimism).
- But risks linger: "European Gas Storage Can’t Survive 3 More Months of Hormuz" (OilPrice) underscores vulnerability to LNG disruptions.

Bottom Line

Neutral-to-bearish near-term on geopolitical de-escalation, but structural storage deficits keep the floor firm — watch Iran deal progress and injection rates.