GasRadar European Gas Market Briefing — June 25, 2026

Market Overview

TTF prices fell 2.71% to EUR 40.88/MWh, testing the lower end of the recent EUR 40.52–42.07/MWh range. The market remains pressured by weak demand and geopolitical uncertainty, with prices hovering near 2-month lows (TradingView). Despite brief rebounds, TTF has struggled to sustain momentum above EUR 42/MWh, reflecting bearish sentiment.

Storage Update

EU storage remains stagnant at 29.4%, 35.1pp below the 5-year average—structurally bullish but overshadowed by weak injection demand. Key takeaways:
- Southern Europe (Spain 73.9%, Portugal 92.2%) continues to offset deficits in the north.
- Critical shortfalls persist in Germany (39.2%), Netherlands (23.9%), and Belgium (22.2%).
- Zero net injections for weeks highlight sluggish demand and ample LNG supply.

Weather & Demand

Summer conditions dominate, with HDDs at 0.0 and temperatures well above heating thresholds (Dublin 18.5°C, Helsinki 18.6°C). No near-term demand catalysts expected.

Supply & Geopolitics

Mixed signals:
- Bearish: Russia redirecting LNG to Asia (Modern Tokyo Times) and weak European demand keep supply loose.
- Bullish risks: Qatar/U.S. warn of potential gas crunch from methane regulations (OilPrice), and JERA highlights "sticky" LNG prices due to low European stocks (S&P Global).
- Geopolitical noise: Ukraine’s preemptive strike threats (Reuters) and Nord Stream speculation (FT) add uncertainty but no immediate supply disruptions.

Bottom Line

Neutral-bearish bias — Prices pressured by weak demand and ample LNG, but structural storage deficits and geopolitical risks limit downside. Key risk: Sudden supply disruption.