GasRadar European Gas Market Briefing

Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Market Overview

TTF surged +2.07% to EUR 43.44/MWh, testing the upper bound of its 7-day range (EUR 40.4–43.44). Prices are now at 2-week highs, supported by:
- Bullish storage deficit: EU storage remains 35.5pp below the 5-year average (29.4% vs. 64.9%), sustaining structural tightness concerns.
- Technical momentum: The rally follows a +4.37% gain on June 29, breaking above resistance at EUR 42/MWh.

Storage Update

• EU aggregate flat at 29.4%—no net injections for the 17th consecutive week.
• Critical deficits: Germany (41.5%), Netherlands (25.4%), and France (49.2%) lag seasonal norms.
• Southern buffer: Spain (74%) and Portugal (93.1%) remain near full, limiting regional stress.
• So what? Stagnant injections signal weak demand, but the yawning storage gap keeps a floor under prices.

Weather & Demand

• Summer lull persists: EU-weighted HDD at 0.0—no heating demand.
• Temperatures mild: Northern Europe (Stockholm 14.4°C, Helsinki 16.6°C) slightly cooler than seasonal averages but no demand impact.
• Outlook: Forecasts show no significant deviations, maintaining bearish pressure on short-term demand.

Supply & Geopolitics

• LNG developments: Greece’s Motor Oil in talks for new LNG terminal (eKathimerini), adding to Mediterranean infrastructure.
• Geopolitical noise: US-China energy inverter ban probe (Reuters) and Australia’s oil/gas exploration revival (OilPrice) hint at longer-term supply shifts.
• Pipeline disruption: Local US gas pipeline repair (KOAT)—minimal impact on EU balances.

Bottom Line

Bullish bias—TTF’s breakout above EUR 43/MWh targets EUR 45+ amid structural storage deficits, though summer demand weakness caps upside. Key risk: LNG inflows outpacing injections.