European Gas Market Briefing — July 13, 2026

Market Overview

TTF prices retreated 2.89% to EUR 48.65/MWh, pulling back from last week's rally that saw prices peak at EUR 50.1/MWh. The market remains volatile, with prices still elevated compared to early July (EUR 44.01–50.1/MWh range). The pullback suggests profit-taking after last week’s geopolitical-driven surge, but structural tightness persists.

Storage Update

EU storage remains critically low at 29.4%, 40.5pp below the 5-year average—a bullish signal. Key observations:
- Germany (43.9%) and Netherlands (29.9%) lag significantly, while Spain (73.0%) and Poland (76.1%) provide regional buffers.
- Injection rates remain sluggish (0.0%/day aggregate), raising concerns about winter preparedness.
- Denmark (+1.0%/day) and Bulgaria (+0.6%/day) show the strongest injection momentum.

Weather & Demand

Summer demand lull continues:
- HDDs at 0.0 across Europe, with no heating demand.
- Mild temperatures (Stockholm 15.3°C, Amsterdam 20.5°C) suppress gas-for-power demand.
- Heatwave aftermath: Reuters reports 10,000 excess deaths from late-June heat, but no immediate demand impact.

Supply & Geopolitics

Mixed signals:
- Bearish: EU increased Russian LNG imports ahead of ban (TradeWinds), adding short-term supply.
- Bullish: BP diverting spot LNG to Pakistan (LNG Prime) tightens Atlantic Basin availability.
- Geopolitical: Cyprus raising Turkish pipeline agreement at EU meeting (Cyprus Mail) could signal future supply risks.

Bottom Line

Bullish bias—TTF pullback likely temporary with storage deficits and geopolitical risks outweighing weak summer demand; watch Russian LNG flows ahead of ban.