European Gas Market Briefing — July 24, 2026

Market Overview

TTF prices eased slightly to EUR 61.9/MWh (-1.02%), retreating from yesterday’s EUR 62.54 peak but holding firmly above EUR 58.38 support. The market remains in a strong uptrend, up 15% MoM, with prices consolidating after breaking out of the EUR 54–58 range earlier this week.

Key drivers:
- Bullish momentum persists despite today’s dip, with geopolitical risks (Red Sea shipping attacks) and persistently low EU storage (29.4% vs. 73.1% 5Y avg) underpinning prices.
- Resistance at EUR 62.50–63 remains a key test; a break higher could target EUR 65.

Storage Update

EU storage flat at 29.4%, still 43.7pp below 5Y average—structurally bullish.
Notable developments:
- Germany (45.6%), France (53.5%), and Netherlands (33.9%) remain critically undersupplied.
- Poland (81.3%) and Portugal (88.2%) continue to offset deficits, but Portugal saw a -1.4% withdrawal (unusual for summer).
- Zero net injections for weeks signal tight available capacity or weak injection demand.

Weather & Demand

Summer lull continues:
- HDDs at 0.0 across Europe, with temperatures in the 16–18°C range (normal for July).
- No near-term demand catalysts, but wildfires in France (forcing evacuations) could indirectly pressure gas-for-power demand if grid disruptions occur.

Supply & Geopolitics

Mixed signals:
- Bullish: Red Sea shipping attacks (Reuters) and rising oil prices could spill over into LNG risk premiums.
- Bearish: Lithium oversupply (OilPrice) hints at broader commodity softness, though gas fundamentals remain tight.
- Neutral: Poland’s new FSRU Solidarity LNG terminal (Gulf of Gdansk) adds long-term supply flexibility but no immediate impact.

Bottom Line

Bullish bias—TTF remains supported by structural storage deficits and geopolitical risks, with EUR 62.50 as the next key resistance. Watch Red Sea disruptions and injection trends.