GasRadar Daily Briefing — August 25, 2026

Market Overview

TTF surged +3.73% to EUR 68.32/MWh, hitting a fresh 3.5-year high (since Jan 2023). The contract has gained +11.2% this week, breaking decisively above the EUR 65 resistance level. Momentum remains strongly bullish with prices now testing the psychological EUR 70 threshold.

Storage Update

EU storage stagnant at 29.4% full (unchanged for 26th consecutive week), lagging the 5-year average by -53.4pp — a record seasonal deficit. Critical NW European hubs remain undersupplied:
- Netherlands (44.3%), Germany (51.0%), and France (66.8%) show minimal injection trends (+0.3–0.6%/day).
Southern Europe (Italy 81.5%, Portugal 91.0%) provides regional buffer but fails to alleviate TTF pressure.

Weather & Demand

Zero heating demand (HDD 0.0) persists across Europe, with summer temperatures dominating:
- Northern cities (Helsinki 12.6°C, Stockholm 13.5°C) slightly cooler but still above heating thresholds.
No significant demand catalysts expected through early September.

Supply & Geopolitics

Bullish catalysts dominate:
1. LNG supply risks: Shell shelves Trinidad’s Aphrodite gas project (Reuters), while Hanwha expands LNG business — highlighting global tightness.
2. Geopolitical tensions: Trump’s Iran sanctions (OilPrice) and Ukraine support pledges (Reuters) keep risk premium elevated.
3. Structural deficits: German reserves at "dangerously low" levels (Vietnam.vn) reinforce NW Europe’s winter supply risks.

Bottom Line

Bullish — TTF tests multi-year highs on structural supply deficits and geopolitical risks, with EUR 70/MWh the next technical target.