GasRadar European Gas Market Briefing
Thursday, September 3, 2026
Market Overview
TTF surged +1.96% to EUR 73.63/MWh, extending gains for the third consecutive session. Prices hit a day high of EUR 74.25, testing resistance near EUR 75/MWh, while the 7-day range (EUR 65.63–73.63) highlights ongoing volatility. The rally reflects:
- Bullish momentum from persistent supply risks (LNG disruptions, geopolitical tensions).
- Storage concerns as EU inventories remain 54.1pp below the 5-year average, keeping winter risk premiums elevated.
Storage Update
- EU aggregate storage flat at 29.4%, with zero net injections for the 26th consecutive week.
- Critical deficits persist in Germany (53.3%), Netherlands (47.3%), while Southern Europe (Italy, Spain, Portugal) remains well-supplied (73.5–93.5% full).
- Implications: Northwest Europe’s structural shortfall continues to drive bullish sentiment, despite Southern buffers.
Weather & Demand
- Minimal heating demand (EU weighted HDD: 2.1), with cooling demand absent.
- Coldest cities: Munich (9.7°C), Helsinki (12.0°C), but no significant demand catalyst.
- Outlook: Mild autumn weather persists, keeping near-term demand subdued.
Supply & Geopolitics
- Geopolitical risks: Putin renamed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project, signaling continued Russian supply uncertainty.
- LNG focus: NZ reaffirmed LNG terminal importance despite Methanex closure, highlighting global supply tightness.
- Market sentiment: Traders pricing in winter risk premiums amid stagnant storage and geopolitical noise.
Bottom Line
Bullish bias as TTF tests resistance near EUR 75/MWh, supported by storage deficits and supply risks, though mild weather caps near-term upside.