Correction (13 Oct 2026): this edition quoted EU gas storage at 29.4 %, a stale March figure caused by a data error on our side. The actual EU storage level was 70.1 % on 21 Sep 2026 (GIE AGSI+, 18 countries). Statements below that rely on the 29.4 % figure, including comparisons with the 5-year average, are wrong.

GasRadar European Gas Market Briefing

Monday, September 21, 2026

Market Overview

TTF surged +4.15% to EUR 79.52/MWh, retesting resistance near EUR 80 after last week’s dip to EUR 76.35. The rebound follows bullish LNG supply concerns (Goldman Sachs warning of potential spikes to EUR 105/MWh if Gulf disruptions persist) and geopolitical tensions (Iran war risks). The 7-day range (EUR 76.35–82.57) suggests volatile consolidation, with upside momentum returning.

Storage Update

EU storage remains stagnant at 29.4%, -57.3pp below the 5-year average—structurally bullish.
- Critical deficits: Netherlands (55.1%), Germany (56.5%), Belgium (59.8%)
- Southern buffer: Italy (85.5%), Spain (73.4%), Portugal (93.9%)
- Zero net injections persist—no refill progress as winter approaches.

Weather & Demand

Mild autumn conditions prevail, with EU-weighted HDD at 2.7 (minimal heating demand).
- Stockholm (9.8°C), Helsinki (10.4°C): Cool but not yet demand-supportive.
- Forecast: Below-normal HDDs expected, delaying heating demand.

Supply & Geopolitics

Bullish catalysts dominate:
1. LNG risks:
- Goldman Sachs warns of TTF EUR 105/MWh if Gulf LNG flows stay constrained.
- France’s Macron eyes Canadian LNG deals, signaling supply competition.
- Qatar’s Energy Minister hints at weeks-long recovery post-Hormuz reopening—delays possible.
2. Geopolitical tensions:
- Iran war risks linger (oil market reaction spillover).
- LNG carrier safety breach reported (hackers seized control—operational risks rising).

Bottom Line

Bullish bias—TTF tests resistance amid LNG supply risks and stagnant storage, but mild weather caps near-term upside. Key risk: Hormuz resolution easing LNG bottlenecks.