GasRadar Daily Briefing — Monday, October 26, 2026
Market Overview
TTF closed Friday at EUR 93.85/MWh, +4.23% — the largest single-day gain in the current leg and a fresh seven-day high. The session was a one-way move: prices opened near the EUR 86.38 low and never looked back, printing a high of EUR 94.03 before settling just below it. That close-near-the-high structure signals buyers remain in control into the new week.
The bigger picture is a market in full breakout. TTF has now rallied from EUR 85.06 (Oct 20) to EUR 93.85 in three sessions, a +10.3% surge, and is up roughly +27% from the EUR 73.51 low of early October. The shallow Oct 20 dip (-3.38%) was bought aggressively, and the subsequent acceleration through EUR 90 — a level that had capped the market — confirms momentum is with the bulls. The next psychological resistance sits at EUR 95–100.
Storage Update
EU aggregate storage stands at 74.62% full, with the injection season effectively over (trend -0.01%/day). The critical number is the gap to the five-year average for this date: -16.1pp versus 90.7%. That is a structural deficit heading into winter and the single most supportive fundamental in the market.
Country dispersion is stark. Poland (99.1%) and Portugal (95.5%) are effectively full, while the demand centres are dangerously light: Germany at 61.5%, Netherlands at 65.2%, and Latvia at 49.3% (drawing down at -0.6%). Germany and the Netherlands are the marginal price-setters for TTF, and both entering winter more than 25pp below their typical levels is a bullish structural signal that the market is only now fully pricing.
Weather & Demand
EU weighted HDD today is 10.3, with genuine cold already visible in the north: Helsinki at -3.0°C and Stockholm at -0.1°C — both below freezing. Warsaw (4.8°C), Munich (5.0°C) and Bucharest (5.2°C) round out a broad-based cold signal across the continent's demand centres.
This is the demand-side trigger for Friday's rally. With storage already 16pp light, the first meaningful cold snap forces the market to price withdrawal risk earlier than usual. Any extension of below-normal temperatures into November would compound the deficit and keep the curve bid.
Winter Stress
The GasRadar Winter Stress Monitor projects a median end-of-season storage level of 27.6% on April 1, 2027, with a 60% probability of finishing below 30% — a coin-flip on a genuinely tight end to winter. The 30-day median projection (Nov 23) is 70.8%, down 0.24pt from the previous run, a modest but directionally bearish-for-inventory revision. This is a projection of physical storage, not a price forecast.
Supply & Geopolitics
Headlines reinforce the supply-fear narrative. "European Gas Prices Surge on Supply Fears" (TradingView) captures the prevailing tone, with the rally driven by concern over winter availability rather than any single supply outage. On the LNG side, Petrovietnam Gas is seeking a 3 million MMBtu spot cargo for Nov 20–24 delivery, evidence of continued Asian competition for flexible cargoes — a bearish-for-Europe signal on marginal supply. Woodside's Scarborough debut cargo timing remains a watch item for incremental global volumes. Broader energy markets are firm, with Brent off a six-month high and oil supply concerns persisting, keeping the macro backdrop supportive for gas. No direct European supply disruption was reported in the last 24h.
Bottom Line
Bullish — a 16pp storage deficit, early cold, and a decisive technical breakout keep TTF bid, with the key risk being a mild November that would deflate the winter premium as fast as it built.
Full projection, uncertainty range and track record: GasRadar Winter Stress Monitor.