GasRadar Daily Briefing — Thursday, November 05, 2026

Market Overview

TTF is quoted at EUR 85.03/MWh, unchanged on the day but down sharply from the EUR 103.94 peak printed on October 30 — a -18.2% correction in four sessions. The 7-day range of EUR 85.03–103.94 tells the story: the market has given back the entire late-October breakout, with the current print sitting at the very bottom of that range. The intraday high of EUR 90.60 against a low of EUR 84.99 shows sellers in control, with rallies being sold into.

The move marks a decisive break of the six-week uptrend that carried TTF +41% from the EUR 73.51 October low. Momentum has flipped: the shallow, aggressively-bought pullbacks that characterized late October have been replaced by sustained liquidation. The EUR 85 level — prior resistance turned support — is now the line in the sand; a clean break below opens the EUR 80 area.

Storage Update

EU aggregate storage sits at 74.07% full, a steep -16.8pp below the 5-year average of 90.9% — a structurally bullish gap that has not narrowed. Inventories are drawing at -0.25%/day, consistent with early heating-season withdrawal.

Country dispersion remains wide and concerning: - Poland (99.0%), Portugal (95.5%), Denmark (91.3%), Sweden (90.5%) and Italy (90.4%) are comfortable. - The core demand centres are the problem: Germany at 60.6%, Netherlands at 65.2%, Austria at 65.8% and Belgium at 66.1% — all well short of where they should be entering winter. - Latvia (51.0%) and Slovakia (52.9%) are the weakest in the bloc. - Fastest draws: France (-0.7%), Croatia (-0.6%), Bulgaria (-0.5%) and Denmark (-0.5%).

The headline number understates the risk: the deficit is concentrated in the markets that matter most for marginal TTF demand.

Weather & Demand

EU weighted HDD today is 10.7, with genuinely cold readings across the north and east: Munich 1.5°C, Helsinki 3.2°C, Prague 3.5°C, Warsaw 4.0°C and Stockholm 4.0°C. This is real heating demand, not shoulder-season noise, and it is arriving against a storage cushion that is 16.8pp thinner than normal. Every cold day now draws down a buffer that has no room for a prolonged cold snap — the demand-side risk is asymmetric to the upside.

Winter Stress Monitor

GasRadar's Winter Stress Monitor projects a median end-of-season storage level of 26.3% on April 1, 2027, with a 65% probability of finishing below the 30% threshold. The 30-day median projection (December 3) is 66.5%, revised +0.13pt higher since yesterday's run. This is a projection of physical inventory, not a price forecast — but it frames the supply buffer as thin, and it is the structural backdrop under the current price correction.

Supply & Geopolitics

The news flow is dominated by supply-side developments that cut both ways:

• Africa's LNG exports are set to soar 175% as buyers flee the Hormuz corridor (OilPrice) — a medium-term bearish signal for European procurement competition, though the timeline is uncertain.
• Qatar has become the largest buyer of US LNG amid the Hormuz crisis (OilPrice), and an "Iran War and AI Boom Drive Global Gas Supply Crunch" headline (OilPrice) captures the competing demand pull tightening global balances.
• Oil fell for a fourth day on expectations of lower risk of Iran war escalation (Reuters) — the single most bearish input into this week's TTF correction, as it removes the geopolitical risk premium that helped drive the October rally.
• US midterms: a Democratic sweep has markets repricing energy policy (Reuters), with oil and data-centre stocks sinking — adding macro risk-off pressure.
• Summit LNG terminal offline, with re-gasification down 47.22% (Financial Express), and Brazil's Barra do Riacho securing a new terminal — marginal shifts in global LNG flows.
• Zelenskiy hopes the US election outcome generates more help for Ukraine (Reuters) — watch for any knock-on to Russian transit risk.

Bottom Line

Bearish near-term — the collapse of the Iran risk premium and macro risk-off have broken TTF's uptrend, but with storage 16.8pp below normal, HDDs at 10.7 and a 65% probability of ending winter below 30%, the downside is likely a correction within a structurally supported market rather than a trend reversal; watch EUR 85 as the pivotal level.

Full projection, uncertainty range and track record: GasRadar Winter Stress Monitor.