European Gas Market Weekly Briefing

July 27 — August 02, 2026

Week in Review

TTF Price Action:
- Opening (July 27): EUR 54.78/MWh
- Closing (August 02): EUR 63.58/MWh (+2.71% WoW)
- Weekly Range: EUR 54.78 – EUR 63.58
- Key Moves:
- July 17: +4.76% (EUR 57.4) on Strait of Hormuz tensions
- July 22: +4.82% (EUR 62.54) as Middle East risks escalated
- July 24: +2.71% (EUR 63.58) closing near weekly highs

Prices surged 15.8% over two weeks, breaking decisively above the EUR 55/MWh resistance level. The rally was driven by geopolitical supply risks (Strait of Hormuz disruptions) and renewed concerns about winter storage adequacy.

Storage Trend

• EU Aggregate: 29.4% (unchanged for 21st consecutive week)
• Regional Divergence:
• Critical Deficits: Netherlands (34.9%), Germany (46.0%), France (54.2%)
• Southern Buffer: Spain (72.2%), Italy (74.0%), Portugal (86.1%)
• Injection Stagnation: Zero net injections continue, raising concerns about meeting winter targets.

Weather Recap & Outlook

• Current Week (July 27–Aug 02):
• HDDs: 0.1 (minimal heating demand)
• Next Week Forecast:
• Mild summer weather persists across Europe, with no significant demand catalysts.
• Risk: Late-summer heatwaves could spike cooling demand (LNG competition with Asia).

Supply & Geopolitics

1. Middle East Volatility:
2. Strait of Hormuz disruptions (Houthi attacks) lifted TTF above EUR 60/MWh.
3. U.S.-Iran tensions paused briefly, but market remains sensitive to chokepoint risks.
4. LNG Supply:
5. No major outages reported, but Asian LNG demand remains elevated.
6. Pipeline Flows:
7. Stable Norwegian flows, but geopolitical risks overshadow fundamentals.

Key News

1. "Strait of Hormuz Conflict Drives European Gas Prices Above EUR60" (IndexBox)
2. Impact: TTF rallied 4.8% on July 22 as shipping delays threatened LNG deliveries.
3. "Europe Risks Entering Winter with Gas Storage Far Below 80% Target" (The New Voice of Ukraine)
4. Analysis: Storage stagnation fuels backwardation in winter contracts.
5. "Germany Refuses to Disclose Nord Stream Explosion Documents" (Laodong.vn)
6. Market Reaction: Added geopolitical risk premium to European gas.
7. "Red Sea Shipping Slows After Houthi Attack" (Reuters)
8. Supply Risk: Delays could tighten LNG balances in August.

Week Ahead

Key Catalysts:
1. Geopolitical Escalation Risks: U.S.-Iran tensions, Red Sea shipping disruptions.
2. Storage Data: Any signs of injection resumption would be bullish.
3. Weather Shifts: Late-summer heatwaves could spike demand.

Directional Bias: Bullish
- Support: EUR 60/MWh
- Resistance: EUR 65/MWh (psychological barrier).

Bottom Line

Bullish with geopolitical risks dominating. Prices are likely to test EUR 65/MWh if Middle East tensions persist. Storage stagnation remains a structural concern, but short-term momentum favors upside.

Key Levels to Watch:
- Upside Break: EUR 65/MWh (opens path to EUR 70)
- Downside Risk: EUR 58/MWh (support from technical buyers).

GasRadar Analytics | August 02, 2026