GasRadar Weekly Briefing

European Gas Market Review — October 26 – November 01, 2026

Week in Review

TTF Price Action: - Latest assessment: EUR 93.85/MWh (+4.23%) - Weekly Range: EUR 85.06 — EUR 93.85 - Key Moves: - Oct 19: EUR 88.04 (+0.56%) — consolidation at elevated levels - Oct 20: EUR 85.06 (-3.38%) — sharp intraweek pullback to weekly low - Oct 21: EUR 87.43 (+2.78%) — strong reversal, dip bought aggressively - Oct 22: EUR 90.04 (+2.99%) — breakout through EUR 90 - Oct 23: EUR 93.85 (+4.23%) — surge to new highs, strongest single-day gain in weeks

Market Sentiment: TTF has extended its rally with remarkable conviction, closing the week at EUR 93.85 — a fresh high for this cycle and the strongest print since at least mid-September. The market has now delivered five consecutive weekly gains, building on the +11.0% surge in the Oct 19–25 window and the +10.8% advance in the Oct 12–18 period. Cumulatively, TTF has rallied approximately +27% from the EUR 73.51 low recorded in the Oct 12–18 week.

The price action this week is particularly telling: the Oct 20 pullback (-3.38%) was aggressively bought, with the market reclaiming EUR 87 within a single session and then accelerating through EUR 90 and EUR 93.85 into the weekly close. This "buy-the-dip" behavior, combined with the close at the weekly high, signals that momentum remains firmly bullish and sellers lack conviction. The EUR 85 level, which served as resistance in prior weeks, now appears to be established support.

Storage Trend

EU Aggregate: 74.62% full, trend -0.01%/day

The EU storage picture remains comfortable in aggregate but masks significant regional divergence. At 74.62% full, storage is broadly in line with the corrected figures from recent weeks (73.8% on Oct 11, 72.7% on Oct 4), indicating that injection season has effectively concluded and the system is now in a neutral-to-slightly-withdrawing posture as heating demand begins to bite.

Regional Breakdown: - Well-stocked: Poland (99.1%), Portugal (95.5%), Sweden (90.5%), Italy (90.0%), Romania (87.8%), France (87.2%) - Adequately positioned: Denmark (85.4%), Bulgaria (83.5%), Croatia (82.4%), Spain (79.3%), Hungary (77.5%), Czech Republic (77.4%) - Below-average concerns: Austria (67.2%), Belgium (66.1%), Netherlands (65.2%), Germany (61.5%), Slovakia (54.6%), Latvia (49.3%)

The German storage level of 61.5% is notably low for this point in the season and represents a vulnerability if winter demand exceeds expectations. Similarly, Latvia (49.3%) and Slovakia (54.6%) remain significantly underfilled. The -0.01%/day trend suggests we are at the inflection point between injection and withdrawal — a critical juncture that typically provides seasonal support to prices.

Weather Recap & Outlook

This Week: EU weighted HDD came in at 10.3, indicating moderate heating demand consistent with late-October conditions. Temperatures across Northwest Europe have been seasonally normal to slightly below normal, supporting the demand-side narrative that has underpinned the recent price rally.

Outlook: The transition into November typically brings a step-change in heating demand. Current forecasts suggest HDDs will rise meaningfully in the coming weeks, particularly across Germany, France, and the UK. The market appears to be pricing in this seasonal shift, with the rally accelerating as traders position for winter risk.

Key Watch: Any deviation from normal temperatures — particularly a colder-than-expected start to November — could exacerbate the storage deficit concerns in Germany and Eastern Europe, providing further upside impetus.

Supply & Geopolitics

Supply-Side Developments:

1. European Gas Prices Surge on Supply Fears (TradingView) — The headline narrative driving this week's rally. Supply concerns, likely linked to LNG availability and geopolitical risk, have pushed prices to multi-week highs.

2. Putin: Russian LNG Still Holds 20% in Europe (Breakingthenews.net) — Despite sanctions and political pressure, Russian LNG continues to flow to Europe. This underscores the continent's continued dependence on Russian molecules, even as Brussels seeks diversification.

3. Iran-Russia Gas Agreement Near Finalization (Mehr News Agency) — A potential strategic shift in global gas flows. If finalized, this could redirect volumes and alter the competitive landscape for LNG and pipeline gas.

4. UK Seen More Reliant on Gas Imports This Winter (Rigzone) — The UK's domestic production decline means increased reliance on imports, adding to European demand for LNG and pipeline gas.

5. Petrovietnam Gas Seeks Spot LNG Cargo (TradingView) — Asian demand for spot LNG remains robust, competing with Europe for flexible cargoes.

Geopolitical Context: - Zelenskiy says US fully resumes warnings on ballistic strikes (Reuters) — Ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices. - Oil Prices Rise Despite Middle East Export Recovery (OilPrice) — Energy markets broadly supported by geopolitical uncertainty. - Serbia's Vucic concedes defeat to student-led movement (Reuters) — Political shift in Serbia could have implications for regional energy politics, though immediate market impact is limited.

Key News

1. "European Gas Prices Surge on Supply Fears" (TradingView) — The defining headline of the week. Supply-side anxiety, likely driven by LNG tightness and geopolitical risk, has been the primary catalyst for the +4.23% weekly gain. This narrative reinforces the bullish momentum.

2. "Putin: Russian LNG Still Holds 20% in Europe" (Breakingthenews.net) — A reminder that despite political rhetoric, Russian LNG remains a significant supply source. Any disruption to these flows would be materially bullish for TTF.

3. "Iran, Russia Gas Agreement Near Finalization" (Mehr News Agency) — A potentially significant development for global gas flows. If Iran and Russia coordinate gas exports, it could reshape supply dynamics, though near-term European impact is uncertain.

4. "UK Seen More Reliant on Gas Imports This Winter" (Rigzone) — Confirms the demand-side pressure on European gas balances. The UK will need to compete for LNG cargoes, tightening the market for Northwest Europe.

5. "Petrovietnam Gas Seeks Spot LNG Cargo for Nov 20-24 Delivery" (TradingView) — Asian spot demand remains a competitive force, limiting the availability of flexible LNG for Europe.

Week Ahead

Key Risks & Catalysts:

• Weather: The primary driver. A colder-than-normal start to November would accelerate withdrawals and exacerbate storage concerns, particularly in Germany (61.5%) and Eastern Europe. Conversely, a mild start would cap upside.
• LNG Supply: Any disruption to LNG flows — whether from geopolitical events, maintenance, or shipping constraints — would be bullish. Watch for headlines on Russian LNG, US export capacity, and Asian demand.
• Geopolitics: Russia-Ukraine tensions, Middle East developments, and the Iran-Russia gas agreement are all potential catalysts. The market remains sensitive to geopolitical headlines.
• Storage Withdrawals: The transition from injection to withdrawal season is underway. Early withdrawal data will be closely watched for signs of demand strength.
• Macro/Energy Complex: Oil prices near six-month highs provide a supportive backdrop. Any reversal in crude could weigh on gas sentiment.

Directional Bias: Bullish. The market has strong momentum, five consecutive weekly gains, and a close at the weekly high. The path of least resistance remains higher, with EUR 95 and EUR 100 as the next psychological targets. However, the magnitude of the recent rally (+27% from October lows) suggests vulnerability to profit-taking on any bearish catalyst.

Key Levels: - Resistance: EUR 95.00, EUR 100.00 - Support: EUR 90.00, EUR 87.50, EUR 85.00

Bottom Line

Overall Assessment: BULLISH

TTF has delivered a fifth consecutive weekly gain, closing at EUR 93.85 (+4.23%) — the highest level in this cycle. The rally has been driven by a potent combination of supply fears, geopolitical risk, and the seasonal transition to winter demand. The market's ability to absorb the Oct 20 pullback and then accelerate higher is a strong bullish signal.

However, the magnitude of the move (+27% from October lows) warrants caution. Storage levels, while comfortable in aggregate (74.62%), mask significant regional vulnerabilities — particularly in Germany (61.5%) and Eastern Europe. This structural tightness, combined with robust Asian LNG demand and geopolitical uncertainty, provides a supportive fundamental backdrop.

Key Levels to Watch: - Upside: EUR 95.00 (psychological), EUR 100.00 (major) - Downside: EUR 90.00 (near-term support), EUR 85.00 (critical)

Trading Bias: Remain long but manage risk. The trend is clearly higher, but the pace of the rally suggests a consolidation or pullback may be imminent. Use dips toward EUR 90 as buying opportunities, with stops below EUR 85.

GasRadar — Senior Energy Market Analyst For institutional use only. Not investment advice.