GasRadar Weekly Briefing

European Gas Market Review — November 09 – November 15, 2026

Week in Review

TTF Price Action: - Latest assessment: EUR 85.59/MWh (+0.00%) - Weekly Range: EUR 85.03 — EUR 103.94 - Key Moves: - Oct 29: EUR 98.59 (-2.12%) — profit-taking pullback - Oct 30: EUR 103.94 (+0.00%) — flat close at cycle high - Nov 02: EUR 93.45 (+0.00%) — sharp gap lower to open November - Nov 03: EUR 92.07 (+0.00%) — continued weakness - Nov 04: EUR 85.03 (+0.00%) — capitulation to weekly low - Nov 05: EUR 89.64 (+0.00%) — strong rebound attempt - Nov 06: EUR 85.59 (+0.00%) — fade back toward lows

Market Sentiment: The six-week rally has decisively broken. After closing the prior week at EUR 103.94 — the cycle high — TTF has collapsed approximately -17.7% to EUR 85.59, surrendering the entire EUR 90–104 advance in a single week. This marks the first meaningful weekly loss since the Oct 12–18 window and the sharpest reversal since the rally began from EUR 73.51.

The price action tells a story of exhausted momentum. The Nov 02 open gapped nearly EUR 10 lower from the Oct 30 close, and while Nov 05 produced a sharp rebound to EUR 89.64, the market failed to hold those gains, fading back to EUR 85.59 by Nov 06. Critically, the market has now given back all gains accumulated during the Oct 26–Nov 01 surge and is trading below the Oct 23 close of EUR 93.85.

Multi-week context: After five consecutive weekly gains totaling roughly +41% from the EUR 73.51 trough, this week's reversal represents a classic momentum unwind. The failure to sustain above EUR 100 — despite briefly touching EUR 103.94 — suggests the rally had become overextended relative to underlying fundamentals.

Storage Trend

EU aggregate storage stands at 72.65% full, with a daily trend of -0.33%/day — indicating active withdrawal mode as heating demand picks up.

Notable divergences across member states: - Well-stocked: Poland (97.8%), Portugal (95.5%), Sweden (90.5%), Denmark (90.1%), Italy (89.2%) - Adequately positioned: France (81.5%), Spain (80.8%), Romania (86.8%) - Lagging: Latvia (51.1%), Slovakia (52.1%), Germany (59.2%), Netherlands (63.8%)

The -0.33%/day withdrawal pace is consistent with early-season heating demand. Germany's relatively low 59.2% level remains a watch item, though it is not yet critical. The aggregate figure suggests Europe entered the withdrawal season with comfortable but not excessive inventories — a neutral-to-slightly-bearish backdrop that likely contributed to this week's price correction.

Trend note: The correction in the Oct 12–18 briefing flagged a data error (storage was 73.8% on Oct 11, not 29.4%). Current levels at 72.65% represent a modest drawdown from that corrected figure, confirming a gradual, orderly withdrawal pattern rather than any supply stress.

Weather Recap & Outlook

This week: EU weighted HDD came in at 11.1 — moderate heating demand consistent with mid-November conditions. This is not extreme cold, but sufficient to drive the -0.33%/day storage withdrawal.

Outlook: The market will be watching for any shift toward colder-than-normal patterns. At 11.1 HDD, demand is supportive but not bullish enough to justify the EUR 100+ levels seen in late October. The price correction this week partially reflects the market recalibrating to more seasonable weather after pricing in a risk premium.

Supply & Geopolitics

Bearish developments: - Iran de-escalation: Multiple headlines indicate Trump views new Iran attacks as "unlikely" if talks progress. This reduces Middle East supply disruption risk — a key factor that had supported prices. - Iraq export progress: Iraq has reached understandings with the US to allow oil exports through Hormuz, and is pushing for higher OPEC quotas. While oil-focused, improved Iraqi hydrocarbon flows ease broader energy tightness. - Algerian LNG surge: Algerian LNG exports rose 51%, adding incremental supply to the Mediterranean basin.

Bullish/uncertain developments: - Khor Mor attack: Production suspended at Iraq's Khor Mor gas field following a drone attack — a reminder that supply infrastructure remains vulnerable. - Russia-Ukraine: Russia struck power substations in Ukraine and three ships in the Black Sea, keeping geopolitical risk elevated. - Iran-Russia pipeline: Plans for a 110 Bcm gas pipeline through Azerbaijan signal long-term supply reconfiguration, though with no near-term impact.

Net assessment: The balance of news this week is bearish for European gas. Iran de-escalation and Algerian export growth outweigh the Khor Mor disruption, which primarily affects Iraqi domestic supply.

Key News

1. Trump signals Iran strikes "highly unlikely" if talks progress (Reuters)

2. Analysis: Directly removes a key geopolitical risk premium. The market had priced in Middle East escalation; this unwind is a primary driver of the -17.7% weekly decline.

3. Production suspended at Iraq's Khor Mor gas field after drone attack (Reuters)

4. Analysis: Bullish for regional supply but limited direct impact on Europe. Highlights persistent infrastructure vulnerability in the Middle East.

5. Algerian LNG exports up 51% (Le Courrier d'Algérie)

6. Analysis: Adds meaningful supply to the Mediterranean and broader European market. Bearish for TTF as it improves alternative supply availability.

7. Democratic Win Set to Reshuffle U.S. Energy Policy (OilPrice)

8. Analysis: Potential implications for US LNG export policy and permitting. Medium-term uncertainty, but near-term neutral to slightly bearish if it signals faster clean-energy transition.

9. Russia says hit power substations in Ukraine and three ships in Black Sea (Reuters)

10. Analysis: Keeps geopolitical risk alive but has not translated into supply disruption. Market appears desensitized to ongoing Russia-Ukraine infrastructure attacks.

Week Ahead

Key Risks & Catalysts:

• Weather shift: Any revision toward colder-than-normal HDD forecasts could stabilize prices. Current 11.1 HDD is moderate; a move toward 14–15 would be bullish.
• Iran talks trajectory: Further de-escalation would extend bearish momentum. Conversely, a breakdown in talks could rapidly re-inject risk premium.
• Storage withdrawals: Watch for acceleration in the -0.33%/day pace. A faster draw would signal stronger demand and provide support.
• US energy policy headlines: Democratic policy shifts could create volatility in LNG markets.
• Technical levels: EUR 85.03 (weekly low) is immediate support. A break below opens EUR 82–83. Resistance stands at EUR 89.64 (Nov 05 high) and EUR 93.45 (Nov 02 open).

Directional Bias: Bearish-to-neutral. The market has broken a six-week uptrend and is searching for a new equilibrium. Absent a cold-weather shock or geopolitical re-escalation, rallies toward EUR 89–90 are likely to be sold.

Bottom Line

Assessment: Bearish

TTF has suffered its first significant weekly loss since October, falling -17.7% from the EUR 103.94 cycle high to EUR 85.59. The correction was driven by a combination of exhausted momentum, Iran de-escalation removing risk premium, and incremental supply from Algeria. Storage at 72.65% with moderate HDD of 11.1 provides no immediate bullish catalyst.

Key levels to watch: - Support: EUR 85.03 (weekly low), then EUR 82.00 - Resistance: EUR 89.64 (rebound high), then EUR 93.45

The burden of proof has shifted to the bulls. A sustained close above EUR 90 would signal stabilization; failure to hold EUR 85 opens a deeper retracement toward the EUR 80–82 zone.