GasRadar Daily Briefing — April 2, 2026

Market Overview

TTF plunged -6.4% to €47.51/MWh, extending losses after Thursday’s -7.4% drop. Prices are now at 3-week lows, testing support near €46.92 (today’s low). The sell-off reflects:
- Bearish fundamentals: Flat storage injections (+0.0%/day) despite mild weather
- Geopolitical de-escalation: Reduced Middle East LNG disruption fears (despite Trump’s Iran comments)
- Technical breakdown: Breaking below €50 psychological support

Storage Update

EU storage remains stagnant at 29.4%, -12.9pp below 5-year average (bullish structural risk). Critical regional deficits:
- Netherlands (5.2%), Germany (22.2%), and France (21.9%) show no meaningful recovery
- Southern buffer: Spain (+0.3% to 56.7%) and Portugal (87.2%) offsetting NW Europe weakness

Implication: Summer replenishment risks growing—market may be underpricing supply tightness.

Weather & Demand

Mild conditions persist:
- EU-weighted HDDs at 8.4, below seasonal norms
- Cold pockets (Munich 2.8°C, Prague 3.4°C) insufficient to drive demand spikes
- Forecasts show above-average temperatures for NW Europe next week

Demand impact: Limited heating demand, bearish for short-term balances.

Supply & Geopolitics

Mixed signals:
- Bullish: Oil surged +4% after Trump’s Iran remarks (spillover risk to gas)
- Bearish: EU Energy Council pushes energy conservation (demand destruction)
- Neutral: Australia’s Eastern Gas Pipeline upgrade (long-term LNG flow flexibility)

Watch: U.S. fuel exports hit record highs (March), replacing Middle East flows—alleviates near-term supply fears.

Bottom Line