European Gas Market Briefing

Friday, April 3, 2026

Market Overview

TTF surged +5.33% to EUR 50.04/MWh, recovering from a recent slump but remaining volatile within a EUR 47.51–55.22/MWh 7-day range. The rebound follows geopolitical jitters (TurkStream attack, Iran tensions) and warnings of a "long-lasting" energy shock from the EU. Prices remain bullish-biased due to structural supply risks.

Storage Update

EU storage stagnant at 29.4%, 13.3pp below the 5-year average, signaling tight supply ahead. Key concerns:
- Netherlands (4.6%) critically low, raising NW Europe supply risks.
- Austria (+2.3%) saw rare injections, but most countries flat/declining.
- Southern Europe (Spain 57.5%, Portugal 88.3%) remains the only buffer.

Weather & Demand

Cooling demand remains subdued with EU-weighted HDDs at 7.4, below seasonal norms. Mild Nordic temperatures (Stockholm 4.9°C, Helsinki 5.8°C) limit heating demand.

Supply & Geopolitics

• Bullish risks dominate:
• TurkStream UAV attack raises pipeline security concerns.
• EU warns of prolonged energy shock, hinting at supply fragility.
• Iran tensions escalate (Trump threats, war risks), threatening LNG flows.
• Bearish relief:
• Leviathan gas field resumes operations, easing Israeli supply.
• Golden Pass LNG starts production, though US exports take time to reach Europe.

Bottom Line

Bullish bias—Geopolitical risks and stagnant storage outweigh mild weather, with TTF likely testing EUR 55/MWh if Middle East tensions escalate further.