GasRadar Daily Briefing

Monday, July 6, 2026

Market Overview

TTF prices edged up +0.53% to EUR 44.25/MWh, holding near a 3-week high (EUR 44.4 day high). The market remains range-bound (EUR 40.4–44.25 over the past week), but bullish momentum is building after last week’s +4.37% surge (June 29). Resistance at EUR 44.5–45 remains key—a break could trigger further upside.

Storage Update

EU storage unchanged at 29.4%, still -38.4pp below the 5-year average (bullish structural signal).
- Northern deficits persist: Netherlands (27.1%), Germany (42.6%), and France (50.0%) lag historical levels.
- Southern buffer: Spain (73.6%) and Portugal (92.3%) remain near full.
- Injection stagnation: Flat trend suggests weak demand or supply constraints—watch for shifts this week.

Weather & Demand

Minimal heating demand (HDD 0.0) with mild summer temperatures:
- Stockholm (17.2°C), Munich (17.5°C), Berlin (18.0°C).
- No immediate demand spikes expected, keeping pressure on injections.

Supply & Geopolitics

• Nord Stream indictment: Germany charged a Ukrainian suspect in pipeline blasts (bullish risk premium).
• LNG concerns: U.S. LNG exports to Europe fell below 50% for the first time in 2 years (supply tightness risk).
• OPEC+ output hike: Oil slipped after supply increase, but gas-LNG linkage remains weak.

Bottom Line

Bullish bias—TTF testing resistance amid storage deficits and geopolitical risks, but upside hinges on breaking EUR 44.5.