European Gas Market Briefing — Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Market Overview

TTF edged up 0.26% to EUR 44.13/MWh, maintaining its recent bullish momentum after breaking out of the EUR 40–42/MWh range last week. Prices tested EUR 44.74 intraday before settling near the upper end of the 7-day range (EUR 40.78–44.25). The market remains supported by geopolitical tensions (Nord Stream legal fallout) and persistently low EU storage levels.

Storage Update

EU storage remains 29.4% full, flat for the 18th consecutive week and 38.7pp below the 5-year average (bullish signal). Key observations:
- Germany (42.9%), France (50.3%), and Netherlands (27.5%) still lag seasonal norms.
- Poland (73.8%) and Spain (73.6%) provide regional buffers, but injections remain sluggish.
- Portugal (92.3%) nears capacity, limiting further upside for southern storage.

Weather & Demand

Summer lull continues with 0.0 HDDs across Europe. Temperatures are mild:
- Dublin (16.7°C), Brussels (17.4°C), and Amsterdam (17.7°C) reflect typical July conditions.
- No heating demand expected, keeping gas-for-power as the primary driver.

Supply & Geopolitics

• Nord Stream legal fallout: London court denies compensation to Nord Stream AG for pipeline sabotage (bearish for Russian supply sentiment).
• LNG developments: Sempra’s Energia Costa Azul terminal prepares its first export cargo (neutral, as volumes not yet EU-bound).
• Geopolitical tensions: Trump hints at Ukraine peace progress, while Norway urges China to mediate Russia-Ukraine talks (watch for gas flow implications).

Bottom Line

Bullish bias with TTF testing resistance near EUR 45/MWh, supported by low storage and lingering supply risks—watch for injection trends and geopolitical escalations.