Correction (13 Oct 2026): this edition quoted EU gas storage at 29.4 %, a stale March figure caused by a data error on our side. The actual EU storage level was 70.5 % on 24 Sep 2026 (GIE AGSI+, 18 countries). Statements below that rely on the 29.4 % figure, including comparisons with the 5-year average, are wrong.

European Gas Market Briefing — September 24, 2026

Market Overview

TTF prices fell 1.8% to EUR 72.01/MWh, continuing the downtrend from last week’s high of EUR 80.06. The market remains volatile, with intraday swings between EUR 69.09–76.15, reflecting mixed sentiment amid geopolitical noise and weak demand. Prices are now 10% below last week’s peak, suggesting fading bullish momentum despite lingering supply risks.

Storage Update

EU storage remains critically low at 29.4%, flat for the 29th consecutive week and 57.8pp below the 5-year average. Key takeaways:
- Northwest Europe deficits persist: Netherlands (56.3%), Germany (57.0%) still lag far behind seasonal norms.
- Southern buffer intact: Italy (86.0%), Spain (73.4%), and Portugal (93.9%) remain well-supplied but offer limited relief due to infrastructure constraints.
- Zero injection trend continues, reinforcing winter supply risks despite mild weather delaying withdrawals.

Weather & Demand

Mild autumn conditions prevail, with EU-weighted HDD at 1.4 and temperatures above seasonal norms (Stockholm: 10.1°C, Helsinki: 10.2°C). No heating demand support expected in the near term, keeping gas-for-power as the primary driver.

Supply & Geopolitics

• Middle East tensions linger: Reports of Iran’s openness to diplomacy (bearish) clashed with warnings of LNG supply disruptions via Hormuz (bullish), keeping traders cautious.
• LNG delays: New Zealand’s terminal uncertainty and China’s pivot to LNG carrier orders signal tightening global competition for cargoes.
• Winter risk premium remains: Goldman Sachs highlighted rising winter price risks, though current fundamentals (weak demand, high stocks in Southern Europe) cap upside.

Bottom Line

Neutral-bearish near-term with prices pressured by weak demand, but geopolitical risks and structural storage deficits prevent a deeper correction. Key risk: Escalation in Middle East LNG disruptions.