Correction (13 Oct 2026): this edition quoted EU gas storage at 29.4 %, a stale March figure caused by a data error on our side. The actual EU storage level was 70.6 % on 25 Sep 2026 (GIE AGSI+, 18 countries). Statements below that rely on the 29.4 % figure, including comparisons with the 5-year average, are wrong.
European Gas Market Briefing — September 25, 2026
Market Overview
TTF surged +4.30% to EUR 75.11/MWh, recovering from yesterday’s dip to EUR 72.01. Prices remain volatile within a EUR 72–79.52 range this week, with geopolitical tensions (Iran, Nord Stream) countering mild weather. The rebound suggests traders are pricing in winter supply risks despite weak near-term demand.
Storage Update
- EU storage stagnant at 29.4%, flat for the 30th consecutive week.
- Critical deficits persist: Germany (57%), Netherlands (56.5%), Belgium (60.8%) — all well below 5-year averages.
- Southern buffer holds: Italy (86.2%), Spain (73.5%), Portugal (93.9%) remain near capacity but offer limited relief due to infrastructure constraints.
- Bullish signal: Storage is 58pp below the 5-year average, reinforcing structural winter risks.
Weather & Demand
- Mild autumn conditions persist: EU-weighted HDD at 0.2, with Dublin (11.5°C) and Stockholm (13.1°C) slightly cooler but no heating demand spike.
- Forecast remains bearish: No significant cold snaps expected in the next 7–10 days, keeping gas-for-power demand subdued.
Supply & Geopolitics
- Iran tensions escalate: Reports of potential Hormuz disruptions lifted prices early, though hopes for a deal later pared gains.
- Nord Stream case developments: Croatian court approved extradition of a suspect in the sabotage case, keeping geopolitical risk premiums alive.
- LNG freight costs surge: Japan’s crude imports hit record highs due to shipping constraints, indirectly pressuring global LNG availability.
Bottom Line
Bullish bias with TTF testing resistance near EUR 76–79; key risks are Iran tensions vs. persistently weak demand.