European Gas Market Weekly Briefing

April 13 — April 19, 2026

Week in Review

TTF prices closed at EUR 43.64/MWh, down 5.49% WoW, after a volatile week that saw prices range between EUR 43.64–53.25/MWh. Key dynamics:
- Geopolitical whiplash: Prices initially spiked (+6.4% on April 7) on Trump’s Hormuz blockade threats, but later retreated (-14.9% on April 8) as markets priced in potential diplomatic resolutions.
- Bearish correction: The week’s close marked the lowest level since early March, reflecting easing LNG supply fears despite ongoing Middle East tensions.
- Oil-gas linkage: Brent crude’s surge past $100 (Reuters) amplified TTF volatility, though gas decoupled late-week as storage concerns moderated.

Compared to prior weeks, the market remains reactive to geopolitical headlines but shows signs of stabilizing near the EUR 40–45/MWh support zone.

Storage Trend

EU aggregate storage held flat at 29.4% for the sixth consecutive week, highlighting structural imbalances:
- Critical shortages: Netherlands (6.1%), Germany (23.3%), and France (25.5%) remain vulnerable.
- Southern buffer: Spain (60.2%) and Portugal (91.7%) continue to offset deficits, but limited pipeline connectivity restricts redistribution.

Implication: Stagnant injections raise summer replenishment risks, particularly if LNG flows remain disrupted by Hormuz tensions.

Weather Recap & Outlook

• HDDs at 2.3: Mild spring weather reduced heating demand, contributing to bearish sentiment.
• Forecast: Continued above-average temperatures expected across Northwest Europe, further dampening gas demand.

Supply & Geopolitics

• Gazprom exports to EU rose 21% YoY in March (Anas Alhajji), but flows remain below pre-war levels.
• Trump’s Hormuz blockade threats (Bloomberg/Reuters) triggered mid-week price spikes, though no physical disruptions occurred.
• Hungary’s pro-EU government transition (Reuters) may ease regional gas policy friction, supporting stable flows.

Key News

1. "European Gas Prices Jump as Trump Threatens Hormuz Blockade" (Bloomberg) – Prices surged 17% intraday before paring gains, reflecting market sensitivity to LNG supply risks.
2. "Gazprom Exports to EU Jump 21% Y/Y" (Anas Alhajji) – Increased Russian pipeline flows provided temporary relief, but long-term reliance risks persist.
3. "Orban Ousted After 16 Years" (Reuters) – Political shift in Hungary could improve EU energy policy coordination, reducing regional supply bottlenecks.
4. "Oil Jumps 7% to Above $100 Ahead of US Blockade on Iran" (Reuters) – Spillover volatility reinforced energy market linkages, though TTF later decoupled.

Week Ahead

Key Catalysts:
- Hormuz developments: Any escalation (or de-escalation) in U.S.-Iran tensions will drive LNG supply sentiment.
- Storage injections: Traders will watch for signs of renewed injections as weather warms.
- EU policy signals: Post-Orban Hungary’s stance on Russian gas transit could impact regional flows.

Directional Bias: Neutral-to-bearish
- Resistance: EUR 48/MWh (previous swing high)
- Support: EUR 40/MWh (psychological level)

Bottom Line

The market remains caught between geopolitical risks (bullish) and weak fundamentals (bearish). While Hormuz tensions could spark short-term spikes, mild weather and stagnant storage injections favor downside pressure. Traders should monitor:
1. LNG shipment tracking via the Strait of Hormuz.
2. Northwest Europe storage injections for signs of summer prep.
3. Political developments in Hungary affecting regional gas policy.

Tactical View: Fade rallies above EUR 48/MWh unless Hormuz disruptions materialize.