European Gas Market Weekly Briefing

April 20 — April 26, 2026

Week in Review

TTF prices closed at EUR 38.77/MWh, down 8.61% WoW, marking the third consecutive week of declines. The week saw volatile swings, with prices ranging between EUR 38.77–46.41/MWh, driven by geopolitical tensions and shifting LNG supply expectations.

Key dynamics:
- Bearish momentum persists: Prices continued their downward trajectory from the March highs (EUR 61.85/MWh), reflecting easing supply fears despite ongoing Middle East risks.
- Geopolitical whiplash: Early-week gains (+6.36% on April 13) reversed sharply (-8.61% on April 17) as markets digested mixed signals from Hormuz disruptions and diplomatic efforts.
- Decoupling from oil: Despite Brent crude volatility (Strait of Hormuz closures), TTF’s reaction was muted, suggesting traders are pricing in stable LNG alternatives.

Compared to prior weeks, the market is stabilizing near EUR 38–42/MWh, a critical support zone last seen in early 2026.

Storage Trend

EU aggregate storage held flat at 29.4% for the seventh consecutive week, underscoring structural imbalances:
- Critical shortages: Netherlands (7.4%), Germany (23.5%), and France (27.6%) remain vulnerable, though minor improvements were seen in Germany (+1.2% WoW).
- Southern buffer: Spain (62.8%) and Portugal (90.7%) continue to offset deficits, but pipeline constraints limit redistribution northward.

Implication: Without meaningful injections, Northwest Europe faces heightened summer replenishment risks, particularly if LNG flows falter.

Weather Recap & Outlook

• Current HDDs: EU-weighted heating demand at 7.9 HDDs, slightly below seasonal norms, reducing withdrawal pressures.
• Forecast: Mild spring weather expected across Europe, with temperatures 1–2°C above average, further dampening gas demand.

Supply & Geopolitics

Key developments:
1. Hormuz disruptions: Iran’s repeated closures of the Strait of Hormuz (Bloomberg) initially spiked oil prices, but LNG rerouting via Canada (Inspenet) and Africa’s new gas pipeline (Daily Express) mitigated gas supply fears.
2. LNG diversification: MET’s increased 2025 LNG volumes (LNG Prime) and Repsol-Venezuela production deals (Rigzone) signaled incremental supply relief.
3. Ukraine risks: Russian attempts to sabotage gas infrastructure (УНН) and Kyiv’s push for European ballistic defenses (Reuters) kept geopolitical premiums alive.

Key News

1. "European Gas Futures Soar as Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz Again" (Bloomberg)
2. Impact: Temporary price spike, but markets quickly priced in alternative LNG routes.
3. "Canada’s LNG Draws Europe to Diversify Supply" (Inspenet)
4. Impact: Bearish pressure as traders anticipate reduced reliance on Middle East LNG.
5. "Nigeria Supplies 68% of West African Gas Pipeline" (THISDAYLIVE)
6. Impact: Bullish for long-term African supply but neutral short-term due to infrastructure delays.
7. "Nord Stream Blown Up by Former Erotic Model" (logos-pres.md)
8. Impact: Market ignored speculative headlines, focusing on tangible supply flows.

Week Ahead

Catalysts to watch:
- Geopolitics: Further Hormuz disruptions or U.S.-Iran deal progress (Reuters).
- LNG flows: Canadian and African supply ramp-up timelines.
- Storage injections: Any break in the 7-week stagnation.

Directional bias: Neutral-to-bearish. Prices may test EUR 36/MWh support if mild weather and LNG inflows persist.

Bottom Line

Neutral-bearish. The market is pricing in stable LNG alternatives, but geopolitical risks linger.
- Key levels: Resistance at EUR 42/MWh, support at EUR 36/MWh.
- Watch: Storage injections and Middle East developments for trend confirmation.

— GasRadar Analytics, April 26, 2026